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When to Ignore Market Research

  8 Comments  Latest comment by: Nils Davis
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The year was 1928. Paul and Joe, two brothers in Chicago, decided to go into business for themselves. They incorporated their business under the name Galvin Manufacturing Corporation - and launched their first product.

It was a battery eliminator - something that was "high tech" in those innocent*, bygone days. After all, it made battery-operated radios run on household current. No small feat, that. They sold a whopping $63,000 worth of it in their first year, booked a tidy profit of $6,015 and employed five people. Life was sweet and all was peachy.

* P.S. I have no idea whether the 1920's were really "innocent days" or not - but a book I read recently claims they were. Proof enough for me!

Over the next couple of decades, things would get much better, well beyond the wildest imaginations of Paul and Joe. Their little company would become the #1 player in a big market - radios. Car radios, home radios, two-way radios, you name it - they owned it. In 1950, they totaled sales worth $177 million - no chump change, even in today's dollars. Then disaster struck.

Actually it didn't (But saying "Then disaster struck" is good way to end a paragraph. Yes, I read that in a book too!). Paul and Joe's outfit was really just getting started. Over the next 40 years, it would become one of America's largest and most successful companies - booking a revenue of $11 billion (with a "B") in 1990 and going onto capture the #1 market share by the latter part of that decade in a hot market - cellphones. Then disaster struck. Really, it did.

Between then and the middle of the current decade, Galvin Manufacturing Corporation (now known by the name of its first car radio product - "Motorola") would steadily lose market share to a startup from Finland - and would go from more than 150,000 employees to about one-third of that.

Success by Ignoring Market Research?
In 2003, in the midst of seemingly never-ending market share loss to Nokia, a veteran engineer named Roger Jellicoe would embark on a "top secret" project guided by an executive named Rob Shaddock. This project would change the fates of Motorola - for the better.

A team of 20 engineers led by Jellicoe worked under secrecy - not revealing the project to carrier partners, industry analysts and even their own colleagues. Their mission was to create the "thinnest phone" possible. The team designed it painstakingly, overcoming many obstacles and poring over minor details. All the while Jellicoe and Shaddock practically lived with the various prototypes of the phone and provided constant feedback.

In the fourth quarter of 2004, the team launched their phone - the RAZR. Within the next two years, RAZR would go on to sell 50 million units and become the best selling cellphone. To put things in perspective - Ed Zander, the CEO of Motorola, recently said:

We'll sell more RAZRs this year than Apple will iPods.

You may be thinking - "Well Michael, that is a good story - but how is it relevant to the subject of this article i.e. Market Research?" Great question and good timing, let us get to that pronto.

See, the whiz-bang team that created RAZR decided to intentionally violate a couple of key Motorola market research data - data that were simply not violated in their company:

  1. Motorola's market research had concluded that phones cannot be wider than 49 millimeters, because they wouldn't fit well in a person's hand. No team in Motorola made phones wider than 49 millimeters.

    The RAZR, whose goal was to be the "thinnest phone", ended up being 53 millimeters wide.

  2. Motorola market research team also said that customers would object to the "side keys" being in the top half of the phone (see image below) - instead of the bottom half as in all the other phones Motorola made.
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The RAZR team successfully argued and convinced the powers-that-be at Motorola that they should launch the phone even though it didn't meet these important "market research" criteria. Because based on their own testing as users, they had found it worked very well.

Hindsight is indeed 20/20 - and it says the RAZR team was right and the market research was not-so-right. What can those of us in Product Management and Product Marketing learn from this? Do I hear "With a carefully picked story, we can prove anything we want"? Okay, that was very smart of you - but what else can we learn?

Market Research is Not Inviolable
In order to create commercially successful innovations, we must deeply understand customer needs and preferences by observing them using our products in real life. Even better, by putting ourselves in their shoes and walking the proverbial mile - or two, or ten. As the RAZR team did.

Based on this insight, we should define innovative products. In doing so, if we run afoul of formal market research data - so be it, as long as we're convinced that customers' needs and preferences are being met. We should be confident enough to make our case to the powers-that-be why we should be allowed to go forward with our plan. After all Shaddock, Jellicoe and their team did. Look where it got their company!

Here is to better products, and more success...

P.S. Check out this excellent Fortune article by Adam Lashinsky for a detailed story on how the RAZR came to be.

What are your thoughts and comments on this topic? Let the world know what you think by clicking on the 'Post Comment' link below!

About the Author: I'm your author, Michael Shrivathsan, an expert in product management and product marketing with successful experience spanning two decades. I live in Silicon Valley, USA. For my day job, I manage the product management group at an exciting software startup.

Comments

The problem I have seen with most market research is they are not very well done. This is the case for both primary as well as secondary market research.

Biggest reason for this is the people who conduct the market research do not have in-depth understanding of the product and the market. The market researchers in my last company is an example. They work hard and they are very sincere. But they do not have the in-depth understanding of products and market.

That is why I think PM should do their own customer research to understand or at least verify customer needs. Do you agree?


Hi Yuen,
You make very good points in your comment. I agree that PMs should be involved in market research to avoid such shortcomings. For PMs to do own research may or may not be possible - due to other work load. But certainly, they should be involved closely.

- Michael

I agree. Researching what the customer needs forms the foundation of the product. Hence, the data derived from that research better be accurate.

Thanks for the interesting story and the link.

I think the quality of articles in this blog, which was good to start with, is going up. Keep 'em coming, mate.

This post is just plain wrong. We should never ignore market research because without it we will be designing in vacuum. Razr is a lucky break for Moto, but other companies should not read too much into it. It is the exception case, not the normal case. Market research should drive everything. Without it how do you know who your designing for and what their needs are.

I think market research can provide a guide to what "could occur" because it is usually based on a lot of data collected. But, many times the data collected represents a unique group of people in a unique situation and should not be broadly applied to any other groups but the one, or repeat potential misinterpretations.

For example, if I collect market research on the opinions of hand size and the relation to phone size likeability, and the group I collect data happens to be a group of people in a remote area of the world with unusually small hands, I would say I would not find similar opinions in another part of the world where the people have unusually large hands.

I think these days, people are very surprising in what products they find helpful to their everyday lives. It is a new ball game out there when conumers can get online and instantly let everyone know what they think about your product. I don't think traditional market research can keep up with that. But, I hear there are some new players that will take market research into hyper drive - TagWorld.


Anyone who thinks market research should drive everything is a moron, or minimally, have trained themselves not to view things objectively or to think.

What assumptions do you have to make to believe that market research should drive everything?:

a) That it is possible to create a research instrument which is error free in construction (no word nuance errors, the right questions, statistically valid, a good sample, etc.)

b) That there are no mitigating factors which could change research conclusions. For example, as in the case of the RAZR, that personal use, quality design, and building the thinnest phone ever could not trump a couple of trivial design rules that applied to previous phones.

c) That the data are not biased by the simple act of observation (The Hawthorne Effect - if participants know they are being studied, it biases the data http://www.accel-team.com/motivation/hawthorne_02.html). This commonly invalidates focus group research, as does group dynamics.

d) That research subjects are not unduly influenced by the opinions, actions or body language of the researchers ( http://writing.colostate.edu/guides/research/rhet-res/com2e3.cfm ).

e) That the researchers in drawing conclusions select the correct theoretical model to describe behaviors (see Evolutionary Epistemology, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionary_epistemology specifically the notion that social and methodological processes select the "best fit" to describe empirical evidence, but that they may have either missed a new model, or mis-fit the data.

f) That participants in market research can reliably imagine a future condition that is different from their current understanding of the {world, product, competitive options, etc.}, and therefore offer valid opinions about utility, design, form or function.

g) That there are no external factors which change the validity of a research study (pricing, market shift, politics, legal, environmental, socio-cultural, technological).

I could go on, but needless to say, there are many assumptions made about research data and the studies that produce them which are not necessarily true.

Of course, market research is a valuable input, but its best use is as a guide, and if one consciously goes against the guide, there should be good reasons to do so. In other words, don't apply rules blindly, and use common sense and healthy skepticism and intuition to decide. Remember that most of the biggest companies today exist because their founders were squelched in their efforts to create new products at their then current employeror that went against the flow -- most often their inventions rejected the status quo and conclusions of market research.

Need convincing? -- here's a couple of examples. In 1947, it was estimated that the worldwide need for computers was 12. Hardly a need that would justify a single company investing in it, let alone provide the basis for an entire post-industrial economy. Xerox was formed because IBM, Kodak, GE, and RCA and others all passed on the concept of a copying machine because market research said no one needed that many copies. Or this old saw -- there is no market for small cars in America. Toyota is still laughing about that one. And, oh yes, there's the RAZR. The stories aren't hard to find.

The remark that Sandy made is something I expect accountants, or salespeople or housewives or secretaries to make, but certainly not anyone who is a credible marketer or product developer.

Paul makes several valid points about the notion of the "market research should drive everything." Perhaps it would be better said that "market research should inform the attempt to make better decisions whenever possible."

True innovations that really make a difference are almost by definition things that come from beyond the existing horizon and thus are things that current customers or users can't readily conceive of, much less describe or request in the form of market research.

Apple did the iPod against all odds. The music labels certainly weren't chomping at the bit to encourage more demand for downloadable music; and music downloaders didn't seem to be actively asking for a fabulous new iPod-like device that would free them from their PC's. Yet Apple's innovative form factor, user interface and ease of functionality (coupled with iTunes) single-handedly rejuvenated the entire space for digital downloads and devices. I would think that the other major consumer electronics players (Sony etc.) were doing plenty of research to better tap this market, yet none of them arrived at the iPod.

"market research" and customer input are vital when making incremental improvements to existing product offerings, but this impact is less clear when in comes to pure innovation.

Another great example of ignoring market research is the Aeron chair. Malcolm Gladwell talks about it at length in Blink as well as in this talk from Poptech 2004. Bottom line - market research is good as part of your knowledge (knowing your customer, Commandment #1), but especially when determing whether innovations are really any good, it's at least as likely to be wrong as to be right.

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